Holy Cross Crusaders at Rhode Island Rams: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ETThomas M. Ryan Center · at Rhode Island

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Holy Cross and Rhode Island
HC	This season	URI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects URI 80–61 · win probability URI 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: URI has more of the edges

HC 2, URI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

URIBig

HC offense vs URI defense

Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 86th, on the model’s ratings

URIBig

URI offense vs HC defense

Offense 123rd of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings

URISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: HC 49.8 and allows 54.8; URI 50.1 and allows 50.4

Context

Schedule so far

HC has played the 225th-hardest schedule, URI the 117th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HC 31.5, URI 38.4. Allowed: HC 27.6, URI 42.6

HCSmall

Three-pointers

HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%; URI hits 31.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 37.3% and 43.5% of their shots

URISmall

Home court

URI at home. This season: URI 0-0 at home, HC 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HC 15.3%, URI 19.1%. Forced: HC 14.1%, URI 21.2%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: HC plays 65.8 a game (320th fastest), URI 66.5 (293rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HC 51%, URI 46%. Transfers in: HC 0, URI 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HC 21.9%, URI 31.0%. Defensive: HC 73.0%, URI 68.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	URI -19.4	—
Total	—	140.4	—
Projected score	—	HC 60.5 · URI 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	URI -11.4	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	HC 27.1 · URI 38.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HC WLLWW	16-15	52%	9-9	—
URI LLWLL	13-19	41%	6-10	—

Venue/role: HC away; URI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HC UUUOU	15-16	48%	9-22
URI OUUUU	14-18	44%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
URI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Holy Cross

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ VILL	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs FUR	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs UALB	No recent meeting

Rhode Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs MONM	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs ME	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs UMES	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HC 0–1 URIURI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HC 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2024-25	HC 77 @ URI 91	URI -20.5	HC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Holy Cross

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

O U O U U U O U O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BRWN	L 49-68	+2.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 21	@SHU	L 66-79	+7.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	vsSIE	L 69-73	+9.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 3	vsNE	W 76-59	+8.5	W +25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 6	@FOR	W 70-69	+10.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 16	vsDART	L 64-89	+1.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 20	@HARV	L 53-81	+10.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 31	vsBUCK	W 65-58	+1.5	W +8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsNAVY	L 58-65	+5.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	@LEH	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@AMER	W 84-73	+8.5	W +19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 14	vsARMY	W 82-75	-4.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 17	@LAF	L 55-74	+2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@NAVY	L 68-85	+11.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsAMER	L 67-76	+4.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@COLG	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@ARMY	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBU	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsLEH	W 76-67	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsCOLG	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 15	@L-MD	L 73-83	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsLAF	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	@BUCK	W 72-63	+2.5	W +11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@BU	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsL-MD	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@LAF	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 159
Mar 5	@LEH	L 66-69	+5.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−16.5

SHU

L 66-79

−5.5

SIE

L 69-73

+5.5

W 76-59

+25.5

FOR

W 70-69

+11.5

DART

L 64-89

−23.5

HARV

L 53-81

−17.5

BUCK

W 65-58

+8.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−1.5

LEH

L 58-66

−5.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+2.5

LAF

L 55-74

−16.5

NAVY

L 68-85

−5.5

AMER

L 67-76

−4.5

COLG

L 74-79

+5.5

ARMY

L 68-69

+1.5

L 64-72

−5.5

LEH

W 76-67

+10.5

COLG

L 70-74

+4.5

L-MD

L 73-83

−5.5

LAF

L 83-86

−4.5

BUCK

W 72-63

+11.5

L 63-78

−6.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−15.5

LAF

W 82-77

+9.5

LEH

L 66-69

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−24.5

SHU

L 66-79

−7.5

SIE

L 69-73

+4.5

W 76-59

−10.5

FOR

W 70-69

+0.5

DART

L 64-89

+5.5

HARV

L 53-81

−2.5

BUCK

W 65-58

−10.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−14.5

LEH

L 58-66

−13.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+14.5

LAF

L 55-74

−9.5

NAVY

L 68-85

+18.5

AMER

L 67-76

+3.5

COLG

L 74-79

+8.5

ARMY

L 68-69

−7.5

L 64-72

−3.5

LEH

W 76-67

+5.5

COLG

L 70-74

+1.5

L-MD

L 73-83

+9.5

LAF

L 83-86

+29.5

BUCK

W 72-63

−7.5

L 63-78

−0.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−13.5

LAF

W 82-77

+17.5

LEH

L 66-69

−7.5

over 15under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rhode Island

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U U O U O O U O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTET	W 93-62	-18.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 7	vsTLSA	L 65-82	-3.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsSTO	W 80-57	-16.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	vsUALB	W 80-61	-15.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 18	@YALE	W 86-77	+8.5	W +17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsTOW	L 55-62	-2.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsUVM	W 80-65	-4.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsTEM	W 90-75	-3.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsBRWN	W 66-56	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 6	@PROV	L 71-90	+7.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsMCN	L 64-66	+1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 16	vsCAN	W 62-45	-21.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	vsNE	W 85-77	-10.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsLUC	L 57-61	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	@GMU	L 50-61	+6.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	vsLAS	L 72-79	-11.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 151
Jan 10	@DAV	W 70-45	+2.5	W +27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	vsVCU	L 75-84	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 21	@RICH	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsGMU	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 27	@DAY	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 1	@DUQ	L 61-76	+2.5	L −12.5	146.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsRICH	W 82-77	-5.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	@GW	L 70-75	+5.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 14	vsFOR	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 136
Feb 17	vsSLU	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 21	@LAS	L 46-59	-3.5	L −16.5	135.5	U 105
Feb 26	@SBU	L 76-94	+2.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsJOES	L 55-61	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	vsDUQ	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 116
Mar 7	@FOR	L 49-61	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 110
Mar 12	vsDUQ	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+12.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−20.5

STO

W 80-57

+6.5

UALB

W 80-61

+3.5

YALE

W 86-77

+17.5

TOW

L 55-62

−9.5

UVM

W 80-65

+10.5

TEM

W 90-75

+11.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−3.5

PROV

L 71-90

−11.5

MCN

L 64-66

−0.5

CAN

W 62-45

−4.5

W 85-77

−2.5

LUC

L 57-61

−13.5

GMU

L 50-61

−4.5

LAS

L 72-79

−18.5

DAV

W 70-45

+27.5

VCU

L 75-84

−5.5

RICH

W 69-68

+4.5

GMU

W 74-65

+10.5

DAY

W 81-76

+14.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−12.5

RICH

W 82-77

−0.5

L 70-75

+0.5

FOR

L 66-70

−8.5

SLU

W 81-76

+14.5

LAS

L 46-59

−16.5

SBU

L 76-94

−15.5

JOES

L 55-61

−8.5

DUQ

W 64-52

+9.5

FOR

L 49-61

−10.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+2.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−6.5

STO

W 80-57

−14.5

UALB

W 80-61

−9.5

YALE

W 86-77

+9.5

TOW

L 55-62

−23.5

UVM

W 80-65

+0.5

TEM

W 90-75

+15.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−16.5

PROV

L 71-90

+1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−16.5

CAN

W 62-45

−31.5

W 85-77

+17.5

LUC

L 57-61

−27.5

GMU

L 50-61

−28.5

LAS

L 72-79

+15.5

DAV

W 70-45

−19.5

VCU

L 75-84

+11.5

RICH

W 69-68

−7.5

GMU

W 74-65

+3.5

DAY

W 81-76

+18.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−9.5

RICH

W 82-77

+16.5

L 70-75

−6.5

FOR

L 66-70

+1.5

SLU

W 81-76

+5.5

LAS

L 46-59

−30.5

SBU

L 76-94

+25.5

JOES

L 55-61

−25.5

DUQ

W 64-52

−27.5

FOR

L 49-61

−26.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−10.5

over 14under 18avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rhode Island has the better starters

Position by position: Holy Cross 0, Rhode Island 2, even 3

Holy CrossBetterRhode Island

G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

URIBig

G D. Williamson TR14.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 63

F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

Even

G J. Hinton12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1

No call

G J. Fontenet TR6.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21

URIBig

G J. Tripp12 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 90

F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Deniusas TR12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 70

Holy CrossBetterRhode Island

HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9

URIBig

URI defense86th of 366 · -0.0

HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8

URIBig

URI offense123rd of 366 · -3.2

Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-0.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players

URIBig

Frontcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestHC betterURI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Holy Cross

Guards

J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew

Forwards

J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min

Centers

K. MgbejioforNew

Rhode Island

Guards

D. Williamson37 min · TRJ. Hinton32 minJ. Fontenet28 min · TRJ. Tripp25 minJ. Harper12 minB. Loer4 min

Forwards

M. Deniusas27 min · TRM. Sow20 minJ. PerryNewN. RaupelisNewT. MartinNewD. MabilonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HC67.9 #314

URI69.9 #288

Points per possession

HC1.03 #288

URI1.05 #255

Pace (possessions)

HC65.8 #320

URI66.5 #293

Shooting

Effective FG%

HC49.8 #248

URI50.1 #231

3-point %

HC32.5 #252

URI31.1 #318

3-point attempt rate

HC37.3 #225

URI43.5 #103

Free throw rate

HC31.5 #268

URI38.4 #92

Possessions

Turnover rate

HC15.3 #83

URI19.1 #326

Offensive rebound rate

HC21.9 #356

URI31.0 #163

Assists per game

HC10.7 #346

URI11.3 #321

Defense

Points allowed

HC74.8 #182

URI68.2 #33

Points allowed per possession

HC1.14 #305

URI1.03 #53

Opponent effective FG%

HC54.8 #324

URI50.4 #124

Opponent 3-point %

HC34.0 #181

URI34.7 #232

Turnovers forced

HC14.1 #330

URI21.2 #10

Defensive rebound rate

HC73.0 #37

URI68.2 #248

Steals per game

HC5.5 #304

URI8.4 #20

Blocks per game

HC1.7 #355

URI3.7 #117

HC		URI
Scoring
67.9 #314	Points per game	69.9 #288
1.03 #288	Points per possession	1.05 #255
65.8 #320	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #293
Shooting
49.8 #248	Effective FG%	50.1 #231
32.5 #252	3-point %	31.1 #318
37.3 #225	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #103
31.5 #268	Free throw rate	38.4 #92
Possessions
15.3 #83	Turnover rate	19.1 #326
21.9 #356	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #163
10.7 #346	Assists per game	11.3 #321
Defense
74.8 #182	Points allowed	68.2 #33
1.14 #305	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #53
54.8 #324	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #124
34.0 #181	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #232
14.1 #330	Turnovers forced	21.2 #10
73.0 #37	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #248
5.5 #304	Steals per game	8.4 #20
1.7 #355	Blocks per game	3.7 #117

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh66–69
W@ Lafayette82–77
Lvs Loyola MD62–76
L@ Boston U63–78
W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.

Rhode Island

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duquesne61–67
L@ Fordham49–61
Wvs Duquesne64–52
Lvs Saint Joseph's55–61
L@ St Bonaventure76–94

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Rhode Island Rams

What could decide it: URI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Holy Cross

Rhode Island

Rhode Island has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Holy Cross

Rhode Island