Stetson Hatters at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Stetson and South Carolina
STET	This season	SC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SC 84–64 · win probability SC 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

STET 2, SC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCBig

SC offense vs STET defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 328th, on the model’s ratings

SCBig

STET offense vs SC defense

Offense 273rd of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

STET has played the 220th-hardest schedule, SC the 54th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STET 18.2%, SC 14.4%. Forced: STET 15.1%, SC 14.6%

STETSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STET 51%, SC 13%. Transfers in: STET 3, SC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

SCSmall

Home court

SC at home. This season: SC 0-0 at home, STET 0-0 away

STETSmall

Three-pointers

STET hits 36.0% and allows 34.5%; SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 44.8% and 44.4% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: STET 32.5, SC 36.7. Allowed: STET 30.4, SC 34.0

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: STET plays 68.2 a game (221st fastest), SC 68.8 (195th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: STET 53.1 and allows 55.2; SC 50.3 and allows 51.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STET 26.6%, SC 27.2%. Defensive: STET 68.2%, SC 67.9%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SC -20.7	—
Total	—	148.1	—
Projected score	—	STET 63.7 · SC 84.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -12.2	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	STET 28.5 · SC 40.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STET WWWWW	18-13	58%	8-8	—
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	6-13	—

Venue/role: STET away; SC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STET UOUOU	14-17	45%	10-21
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STET	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stetson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ WVU	No recent meeting
Nov 12	@ HOW	W64–60WU
Nov 19	@ LOU	No recent meeting

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs SEMO	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs SPU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs GWEB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STET 0–1 SCSC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STET 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	STET 51 @ SC 82	SC -22.5	SC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stetson

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L W W L L L L L L W L W L W L L L W L L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@URI	L 62-93	+18.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 10	@MIA	L 61-102	+34.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	@WCU	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsHOW	W 64-60	+1.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsVMI	W 99-80	+2.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 25	vsWRST	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsSUU	L 68-70	+1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 138
Nov 30	@RMU	L 62-80	+11.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 2	@GCU	L 45-67	+24.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 112
Dec 6	@SC	L 51-82	+22.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 22	@OU	L 54-107	+31.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNA	W 70-67	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 137
Jan 3	@CARK	L 73-93	+11.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 166
Jan 8	vsLIP	W 91-83	+11.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 10	vsAPSU	L 69-81	+9.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 150
Jan 15	vsWGA	W 95-86	+1.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 181
Jan 17	vsQUC	L 81-87	+10.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 22	@LIP	L 74-79	+15.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 23	@APSU	L 65-73	+16.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 138
Jan 29	@UNF	W 84-77	-1.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 31	vsUNA	L 66-68	-1.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 5	@BELL	L 71-92	+4.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 163
Feb 7	@EKU	L 88-100	+9.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsJAX	W 67-62	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@FGCU	L 76-78	+11.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 19	vsCARK	L 76-88	+9.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsUNF	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 26	@JAX	L 85-89	+7.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 174
Feb 28	vsFGCU	W 78-63	+5.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsEKU	W 92-76	+5.5	W +21.5	155.5	O 168
Mar 6	vsAPSU	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

L 62-93

−12.5

MIA

L 61-102

−6.5

WCU

L 65-76

+1.5

HOW

W 64-60

+5.5

VMI

W 99-80

+21.5

WRST

L 62-79

−7.5

SUU

L 68-70

−0.5

RMU

L 62-80

−6.5

GCU

L 45-67

+2.5

L 51-82

−8.5

L 54-107

−21.5

UNA

W 70-67

+12.5

CARK

L 73-93

−8.5

LIP

W 91-83

+19.5

APSU

L 69-81

−2.5

WGA

W 95-86

+10.5

QUC

L 81-87

+4.5

LIP

L 74-79

+10.5

APSU

L 65-73

+8.5

UNF

W 84-77

+5.5

UNA

L 66-68

−3.5

BELL

L 71-92

−16.5

EKU

L 88-100

−2.5

JAX

W 67-62

+7.5

FGCU

L 76-78

+9.5

CARK

L 76-88

−2.5

UNF

W 76-71

+3.5

JAX

L 85-89

+3.5

FGCU

W 78-63

+20.5

EKU

W 92-76

+21.5

APSU

L 60-69

+2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

L 62-93

+2.5

MIA

L 61-102

+1.5

WCU

L 65-76

−14.5

HOW

W 64-60

−25.5

VMI

W 99-80

+30.5

WRST

L 62-79

−6.5

SUU

L 68-70

−10.5

RMU

L 62-80

−0.5

GCU

L 45-67

−29.5

L 51-82

−9.5

L 54-107

+12.5

UNA

W 70-67

−5.5

CARK

L 73-93

+18.5

LIP

W 91-83

+23.5

APSU

L 69-81

−0.5

WGA

W 95-86

+29.5

QUC

L 81-87

+5.5

LIP

L 74-79

−4.5

APSU

L 65-73

−10.5

UNF

W 84-77

−4.5

UNA

L 66-68

−10.5

BELL

L 71-92

+14.5

EKU

L 88-100

+36.5

JAX

W 67-62

−9.5

FGCU

L 76-78

+5.5

CARK

L 76-88

+14.5

UNF

W 76-71

−14.5

JAX

L 85-89

+35.5

FGCU

W 78-63

−9.5

EKU

W 92-76

+12.5

APSU

L 60-69

−24.5

over 14under 17avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Stetson 1, South Carolina 3, even 1

StetsonBetterSouth Carolina

G D. Macgregor4.8 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 26

SCBig

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

F C. Kuhl13.2 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 87

Even

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

F F. Sheridan7.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21

SCSmall

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

F M. Myles TR7.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 66

STETSmall

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F A. Doyle5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9

SCSmall

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

StetsonBetterSouth Carolina

STET offense273rd of 366 · -8.3

SCBig

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

STET defense328th of 366 · -8.5

SCBig

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-1.4 · 1 player

SCBig

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.9 · 4 players

STETSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Bench-5.1 · 5 players

SCBig

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSTET betterSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Stetson

Guards

D. Macgregor19 minS. Morgan14 minT. Sucatzky13 min · TRM. McGowan2 minI. Jones2 minB. Gladieux2 min

Forwards

C. Kuhl24 minF. Sheridan23 minM. Myles21 min · TRA. Doyle17 minM. Entenmann12 min · TRJ. Boyomo KeediNew

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STET71.9 #246

SC74.9 #165

Points per possession

STET1.06 #231

SC1.09 #161

Pace (possessions)

STET68.2 #221

SC68.8 #195

Shooting

Effective FG%

STET53.1 #96

SC50.3 #226

3-point %

STET36.0 #59

SC31.1 #317

3-point attempt rate

STET44.8 #75

SC44.4 #80

Free throw rate

STET32.5 #250

SC36.7 #137

Possessions

Turnover rate

STET18.2 #284

SC14.4 #39

Offensive rebound rate

STET26.6 #308

SC27.2 #289

Assists per game

STET14.7 #105

SC13.3 #190

Defense

Points allowed

STET79.9 #315

SC76.5 #228

Points allowed per possession

STET1.17 #339

SC1.11 #252

Opponent effective FG%

STET55.2 #338

SC51.6 #188

Opponent 3-point %

STET34.5 #223

SC31.8 #56

Turnovers forced

STET15.1 #278

SC14.6 #314

Defensive rebound rate

STET68.2 #250

SC67.9 #263

Steals per game

STET6.2 #213

SC5.5 #295

Blocks per game

STET2.0 #344

SC2.4 #317

STET		SC
Scoring
71.9 #246	Points per game	74.9 #165
1.06 #231	Points per possession	1.09 #161
68.2 #221	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #195
Shooting
53.1 #96	Effective FG%	50.3 #226
36.0 #59	3-point %	31.1 #317
44.8 #75	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #80
32.5 #250	Free throw rate	36.7 #137
Possessions
18.2 #284	Turnover rate	14.4 #39
26.6 #308	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #289
14.7 #105	Assists per game	13.3 #190
Defense
79.9 #315	Points allowed	76.5 #228
1.17 #339	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #252
55.2 #338	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #188
34.5 #223	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #56
15.1 #278	Turnovers forced	14.6 #314
68.2 #250	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #263
6.2 #213	Steals per game	5.5 #295
2.0 #344	Blocks per game	2.4 #317

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stetson

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Austin Peay60–69
Wvs E Kentucky92–76
Wvs FGCU78–63
L@ Jacksonville85–89
Wvs North Florida76–71

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Stetson Hatters at South Carolina Gamecocks

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stetson

South Carolina

South Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Stetson

South Carolina