Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Knicks
CHI	This season	NY
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 124–107 · win probability NY 88%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

CHI 1, NY 6 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 47.9% and 43.2% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, NY 78.7%

NYBig

CHI offense vs NY defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

NYSmall

NY offense vs CHI defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, NY 24.5. Allowed: CHI 33.5, NY 25.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, NY 15.2%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, NY 13.2%

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rest

CHI 5 days since its last game, NY 5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs PHI	L137–157LO
Nov 11	vs SA	L114–129WU
Nov 13	vs ATL	W126–123WU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ CLE	W130–93WO
Nov 10	vs MIL	W127–98WO
Nov 11	vs CLE	W130–93WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CHI 7–12 NYNY leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 4 meetings · CHI 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	NY 133 @ CHI 127	CHI +7.5	CHI W
Apr 3, 2025-26	CHI 96 @ NY 136	NY -13.5	NY W
Feb 22, 2025-26	NY 105 @ CHI 99	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Nov 2, 2025-26	CHI 116 @ NY 128	NY -8.5	NY W
Oct 31, 2025-26	NY 125 @ CHI 135	CHI +5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Knicks 5, even 0

BullsBetterKnicks

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

NYSmall

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

NYBig

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

NYBig

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

BullsBetterKnicks

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

NYSmall

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

NYSmall

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

NY4.0 #28

CHI		NY
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.05 #24
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
28.1 #30	3-point %	35.2 #13
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
8.7 #17	Steals per game	7.3 #23
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

5 days since their last game.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

5 days since their last game.

Bulls @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Knicks