Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Nuggets
TOR	This season	DEN
3-3	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 116–115 · win probability DEN 51%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

TOR 3, DEN 4 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, DEN 31.3. Allowed: TOR 41.5, DEN 21.5

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, DEN 15.9%

DENBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 40.9% of their shots

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

Rest

TOR 3 days since its last game, DEN 5

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

TORSmall

TOR offense vs DEN defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs TOR defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ MIL	W122–94WU
Nov 9	vs MEM	W128–96WU
Nov 11	vs BOS	L101–115LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ IND	W135–120WO
Nov 9	@ HOU	W129–93WU
Nov 11	@ MEM	W136–119LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 2–8 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 6 meetings · TOR 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 20, 2025-26	TOR 115 @ DEN 121	DEN -6.5	TOR W
Dec 31, 2025-26	DEN 106 @ TOR 103	TOR -7.5	DEN W
Nov 4, 2024-25	TOR 119 @ DEN 121	DEN -11.5	TOR W
Oct 28, 2024-25	DEN 127 @ TOR 125	TOR +8.5	TOR W
Mar 11, 2023-24	TOR 119 @ DEN 125	DEN -16.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 0, Nuggets 1, even 4

RaptorsBetterNuggets

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

DENSmall

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

RaptorsBetterNuggets

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

DEN4.4 #18

TOR		DEN
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.13 #9
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
32.0 #24	3-point %	37.4 #7
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
12.7 #2	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

3 days since their last game.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

5 days since their last game.

Raptors @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Nuggets