1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. MAN @ UK
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

Manhattan Jaspers at Kentucky Wildcats

Rupp Arena · at Kentucky
#330MANManhattan
@
#19UKKentucky AP #23
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MANThis seasonUK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 96–61 · win probability UK 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 156.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

MAN 1, UK 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UKBig
UK offense vs MAN defense
Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 346th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MAN has played the 336th-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UKBig
MAN offense vs UK defense
Offense 301st of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings
UKBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MAN 47.9 and allows 53.9; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9
UKBig
Three-pointers
MAN hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 37.1% and 39.7% of their shots
UKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MAN 28.6%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: MAN 63.0%, UK 70.0%
MANSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MAN 34.0, UK 37.4. Allowed: MAN 25.7, UK 36.4
UKSmall
Home court
UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, MAN 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MAN plays 69.0 a game (182nd fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MAN 15.6%, UK 15.4%. Forced: MAN 16.6%, UK 15.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MAN 10%, UK 26%. Transfers in: MAN 5, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UK -35.4—
Total—156.4—
Projected score—MAN 60.5 · UK 95.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUK -20.9—
1H total73.1—
1H projected scoreMAN 26.1 · UK 47—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: Manhattan 0, Kentucky 3, even 2
ManhattanBetterKentucky
G B. Tweedy TR9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 29
UKBig
G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81
G J. Sabino TR7.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53
UKBig
G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
G Q. Elliott3.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 17
UKSmall
G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48
G J. Delaney0.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97
F O. Stankovic TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87
ManhattanBetterKentucky
MAN offense301st of 366 · -9.4
UKBig
UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5
MAN defense346th of 366 · -9.3
UKBig
UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5
Backcourt-4.3 · 4 players
UKBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
UKBig
Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 3 players
UKBig
Bench+5.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMAN betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Manhattan
Guards
B. Tweedy30 min · TRJ. Sabino21 min · TRQ. Elliott12 minJ. Delaney5 minA. Miguel4 minB. PearceNew
Forwards
O. Stankovic6 min · TRK. Kearney4 min · TRL. McChesney3 min · TRI. JohnsonNewD. EricNewN. ManojlovicNew
Kentucky
Guards
A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew
Forwards
M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew
Centers
F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MANUK
Scoring
72.4 #232Points per game80.5 #55
1.05 #247Points per possession1.15 #57
69.0 #182Pace (possessions)69.9 #123
Shooting
47.9 #315Effective FG%53.4 #87
32.0 #2803-point %34.2 #158
37.1 #2283-point attempt rate39.7 #180
34.0 #208Free throw rate37.4 #119
Possessions
15.6 #112Turnover rate15.4 #98
28.6 #247Offensive rebound rate33.2 #84
12.3 #268Assists per game15.9 #50
Defense
79.6 #309Points allowed74.3 #167
1.15 #330Points allowed per possession1.06 #115
53.9 #297Opponent effective FG%48.9 #63
36.6 #332Opponent 3-point %31.8 #55
16.6 #175Turnovers forced15.5 #248
63.0 #358Defensive rebound rate70.0 #158
7.8 #54Steals per game7.0 #123
2.3 #325Blocks per game4.6 #33
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Manhattan

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fairfield60–71
  • Lvs Iona65–69
  • L@ Saint Peter's65–75
  • Lvs Marist70–84
  • W@ Canisius69–65

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State63–82
  • Wvs Santa Clara89–84
  • Lvs Florida63–71
  • Wvs Missouri78–72
  • Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.