UAlbany Great Danes at Manhattan Jaspers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ETDraddy Gymnasium · at Manhattan

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UAlbany and Manhattan
UALB	This season	MAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MAN 74–73 · win probability MAN 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UALB 3, MAN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MANBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, MAN 34.0. Allowed: UALB 35.7, MAN 25.7

MANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, MAN 15.6%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, MAN 16.6%

UALBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, MAN 28.6%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, MAN 63.0%

UALBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; MAN 47.9 and allows 53.9

Context

Schedule so far

UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, MAN the 336th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), MAN 69.0 (182nd). Faster games mean more points

MANSmall

Home court

MAN at home. This season: MAN 0-0 at home, UALB 0-0 away

UALBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, MAN 10%. Transfers in: UALB 3, MAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

MAN offense vs UALB defense

Offense 301st of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings

Even

UALB offense vs MAN defense

Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 346th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; MAN hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 37.6% and 37.1% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MAN -1.6	—
Total	—	146.5	—
Projected score	—	UALB 72.5 · MAN 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MAN -0.8	—
1H total	68.5	—
1H projected score	UALB 33.9 · MAN 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UALB WLWLL	11-18	38%	5-12	—
MAN WLLLL	11-20	35%	6-7	—

Venue/role: UALB away; MAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UALB UUOUO	14-15	48%	8-21
MAN UOUUU	13-18	42%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UALB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MAN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UAlbany

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs MRMK	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs DART	W87–73WO
Nov 15	@ HC	No recent meeting

Manhattan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ ME	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ LEM	L77–81LO
Nov 17	vs FOR	L53–82LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UAlbany

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L L W W L L W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 10	vsYALE	L 82-93	+17.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 13	@FAU	L 79-105	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 17	@STBK	W 71-55	+10.5	W +26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	vsCOR	L 75-83	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 30	@SC	L 67-96	+19.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	@UML	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRY	W 71-46	-3.5	W +21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsBING	W 69-53	-8.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Jan 19	vsUVM	W 75-68	+5.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@ME	L 49-52	-2.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	@UNH	L 72-80	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsNJIT	L 68-77	-5.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsUMBC	L 65-68	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	@BRY	W 65-63	+1.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsUML	L 79-89	-4.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 14	@BING	W 77-74	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 19	@NJIT	W 81-63	+3.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	@UMBC	L 62-66	+7.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsME	L 59-70	-4.5	L −15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsUNH	W 84-61	-3.5	W +19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	@UVM	L 56-69	+9.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@UML	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

YALE

L 82-93

+6.5

FAU

L 79-105

−7.5

STBK

W 71-55

+26.5

COR

L 75-83

−1.5

L 67-96

−9.5

UML

L 71-83

−9.5

BRY

W 71-46

+21.5

BING

W 69-53

+7.5

UVM

W 75-68

+12.5

L 49-52

−5.5

UNH

L 72-80

−5.5

NJIT

L 68-77

−14.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−1.5

BRY

W 65-63

+3.5

UML

L 79-89

−14.5

BING

W 77-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+21.5

UMBC

L 62-66

+3.5

L 59-70

−15.5

UNH

W 84-61

+19.5

UVM

L 56-69

−3.5

UML

L 76-81

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

YALE

L 82-93

+29.5

FAU

L 79-105

+36.5

STBK

W 71-55

−20.5

COR

L 75-83

−9.5

L 67-96

+14.5

UML

L 71-83

+3.5

BRY

W 71-46

−19.5

BING

W 69-53

−16.5

UVM

W 75-68

+3.5

L 49-52

−30.5

UNH

L 72-80

+14.5

NJIT

L 68-77

+5.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−8.5

BRY

W 65-63

−5.5

UML

L 79-89

+24.5

BING

W 77-74

+14.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+1.5

UMBC

L 62-66

−16.5

L 59-70

−1.5

UNH

W 84-61

+6.5

UVM

L 56-69

−11.5

UML

L 76-81

+10.5

over 14under 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Manhattan

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W L L W W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W L L W L L W L L L L W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U U U O O U O U O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 4	@MRMK	L 66-73	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	vsCAN	L 64-70	-7.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNIA	W 79-70	-5.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@FAIR	L 62-98	+6.5	L −29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	vsSIE	L 59-74	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	@QUIN	L 92-98	+13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 190
Jan 24	@IONA	L 57-66	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 123
Jan 30	vsRID	W 95-90	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	@MSM	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsSPU	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 7	vsSHU	W 80-68	+1.5	W +13.5	161.5	U 148
Feb 13	@NIA	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 15	@CAN	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	vsMRST	L 70-84	+5.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 154
Feb 27	@SPU	L 65-75	+7.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsIONA	L 65-69	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsFAIR	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−0.5

CAN

L 64-70

−13.5

NIA

W 79-70

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-98

−29.5

SIE

L 59-74

−8.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+7.5

IONA

L 57-66

−1.5

RID

W 95-90

−0.5

MSM

L 65-72

−0.5

SPU

L 75-80

−0.5

SHU

W 80-68

+13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+4.5

CAN

W 69-65

+2.5

MRST

L 70-84

−8.5

SPU

L 65-75

−2.5

IONA

L 65-69

−1.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−7.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−9.5

CAN

L 64-70

−11.5

NIA

W 79-70

+8.5

FAIR

L 62-98

+1.5

SIE

L 59-74

−11.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+36.5

IONA

L 57-66

−30.5

RID

W 95-90

+39.5

MSM

L 65-72

−10.5

SPU

L 75-80

+10.5

SHU

W 80-68

−13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+8.5

CAN

W 69-65

−8.5

MRST

L 70-84

+11.5

SPU

L 65-75

−5.5

IONA

L 65-69

−17.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−17.5

over 13under 18avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UAlbany has the better starters

Position by position: UAlbany 1, Manhattan 0, even 4

UAlbanyBetterManhattan

G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27

Even

G B. Tweedy TR9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 29

G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48

Even

G J. Sabino TR7.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53

G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

UALBSmall

G Q. Elliott3.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 17

G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1

No call

G J. Delaney0.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

No call

F O. Stankovic TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

UAlbanyBetterManhattan

UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0

Even

MAN defense346th of 366 · -9.3

UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7

Even

MAN offense301st of 366 · -9.4

Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players

MANSmall

Backcourt-4.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

MANSmall

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUALB betterMAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UAlbany

Guards

A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew

Forwards

B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew

Centers

K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew

Manhattan

Guards

B. Tweedy30 min · TRJ. Sabino21 min · TRQ. Elliott12 minJ. Delaney5 minA. Miguel4 minB. PearceNew

Forwards

O. Stankovic6 min · TRK. Kearney4 min · TRL. McChesney3 min · TRI. JohnsonNewD. EricNewN. ManojlovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UALB68.7 #302

MAN72.4 #232

Points per possession

UALB1.05 #259

MAN1.05 #247

Pace (possessions)

UALB65.6 #324

MAN69.0 #182

Shooting

Effective FG%

UALB51.4 #182

MAN47.9 #315

3-point %

UALB32.6 #248

MAN32.0 #280

3-point attempt rate

UALB37.6 #220

MAN37.1 #228

Free throw rate

UALB24.9 #364

MAN34.0 #208

Possessions

Turnover rate

UALB18.5 #299

MAN15.6 #112

Offensive rebound rate

UALB32.7 #99

MAN28.6 #247

Assists per game

UALB12.8 #232

MAN12.3 #268

Defense

Points allowed

UALB74.5 #176

MAN79.6 #309

Points allowed per possession

UALB1.14 #302

MAN1.15 #330

Opponent effective FG%

UALB53.2 #275

MAN53.9 #297

Opponent 3-point %

UALB36.0 #302

MAN36.6 #332

Turnovers forced

UALB15.8 #228

MAN16.6 #175

Defensive rebound rate

UALB67.6 #277

MAN63.0 #358

Steals per game

UALB6.7 #153

MAN7.8 #54

Blocks per game

UALB3.9 #82

MAN2.3 #325

UALB		MAN
Scoring
68.7 #302	Points per game	72.4 #232
1.05 #259	Points per possession	1.05 #247
65.6 #324	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #182
Shooting
51.4 #182	Effective FG%	47.9 #315
32.6 #248	3-point %	32.0 #280
37.6 #220	3-point attempt rate	37.1 #228
24.9 #364	Free throw rate	34.0 #208
Possessions
18.5 #299	Turnover rate	15.6 #112
32.7 #99	Offensive rebound rate	28.6 #247
12.8 #232	Assists per game	12.3 #268
Defense
74.5 #176	Points allowed	79.6 #309
1.14 #302	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #330
53.2 #275	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #297
36.0 #302	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #332
15.8 #228	Turnovers forced	16.6 #175
67.6 #277	Defensive rebound rate	63.0 #358
6.7 #153	Steals per game	7.8 #54
3.9 #82	Blocks per game	2.3 #325

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMass Lowell76–81
L@ Vermont56–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–61
Lvs Maine59–70
L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Manhattan

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Fairfield60–71
Lvs Iona65–69
L@ Saint Peter's65–75
Lvs Marist70–84
W@ Canisius69–65

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany Great Danes at Manhattan Jaspers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UAlbany

Manhattan

UAlbany has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UAlbany

Manhattan