Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 7:30 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Hornets
BOS	This season	CHA
5-1	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 110–103 · win probability BOS 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 212.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

CHA offense vs BOS defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, CHA 14.5%

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 50.8% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, CHA 76.6%

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

CHABig

BOS offense vs CHA defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, CHA 18.9. Allowed: BOS 31.7, CHA 28.4

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 5	@ ATL	L102–112LU
Feb 7	@ PHI	L100–109LO
Feb 9	vs DEN	L84–103LU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 5	vs GS	L116–136LO
Feb 7	@ TOR	L96–97WU
Feb 9	@ NY	W110–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

BOS 15–3 CHABOS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 2 meetings · BOS 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	CHA 102 @ BOS 113	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Mar 29, 2025-26	BOS 114 @ CHA 99	CHA -2.5	BOS W
Mar 4, 2025-26	CHA 118 @ BOS 89	BOS -6.5	CHA W
Apr 13, 2024-25	CHA 86 @ BOS 93	BOS -10.5	CHA W
Apr 11, 2024-25	CHA 94 @ BOS 130	BOS -21.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 3, Hornets 0, even 2

CelticsBetterHornets

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSSmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

CelticsBetterHornets

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

CHASmall

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

CHA5.0 #15

BOS		CHA
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.15 #6	Points per possession	0.99 #30
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
35.5 #10	3-point %	29.6 #28
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
28.0 #6	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.2 #9	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Hornets

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Hornets

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Hornets