Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 6:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Raptors
CHA	This season	TOR
3-4	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 112–104 · win probability TOR 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

CHA 1, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, TOR 20.8%

TORBig

CHA offense vs TOR defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

TOR offense vs CHA defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: CHA 28.4, TOR 41.5

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ NY	W110–96LU
Feb 11	vs MIL	L121–122WO
Feb 13	vs DAL	W117–90WU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ CLE	L102–114LO
Feb 12	vs CLE	L102–114LO
Feb 14	@ BOS	L101–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 5–13 TORTOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 7, 2025-26	TOR 97 @ CHA 96	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Dec 5, 2025-26	CHA 111 @ TOR 86	TOR -6.5	CHA W
Nov 29, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ CHA 118	CHA +6.5	CHA W
Nov 17, 2025-26	CHA 108 @ TOR 110	TOR -7.5	CHA W
Apr 9, 2024-25	CHA 96 @ TOR 126	TOR -11.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Raptors 2, even 3

HornetsBetterRaptors

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

Even

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

TORBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

HornetsBetterRaptors

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHASmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

TOR4.3 #19

CHA		TOR
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	118.2 #10
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.11 #13
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
29.6 #28	3-point %	32.0 #24
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
21.6 #30	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
7.1 #25	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Raptors