Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and 76ers
BOS	This season	PHI
5-1	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 111–107 · win probability BOS 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 3, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

PHI offense vs BOS defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, PHI 70.8%

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

BOS offense vs PHI defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.9% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, PHI 28.7. Allowed: BOS 31.7, PHI 28.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs DEN	L84–103LU
Feb 10	vs GS	W120–99WO
Feb 12	vs MIN	L92–102LU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	vs BKN	W104–97LU
Feb 11	vs NY	W98–93WU
Feb 13	@ OKC	L103–123LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 34 since 2021-22

BOS 20–14 PHIBOS leads · 34 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 16-18 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 2, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ BOS 100	BOS -3.5	PHI W
Apr 30, 2025-26	BOS 93 @ PHI 106	PHI +6.5	PHI W
Apr 28, 2025-26	PHI 113 @ BOS 97	BOS -10.5	PHI W
Apr 26, 2025-26	BOS 128 @ PHI 96	PHI +6.5	BOS W
Apr 24, 2025-26	BOS 108 @ PHI 100	PHI +8.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, 76ers 1, even 2

CelticsBetter76ers

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

PHISmall

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

CelticsBetter76ers

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

PHISmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

PHI5.0 #14

BOS		PHI
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.06 #22
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
35.5 #10	3-point %	34.0 #20
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
28.0 #6	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ 76ers

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

76ers

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

76ers