New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Thunder
NY	This season	OKC
2-4	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 108–108 · win probability OKC 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

NY 3, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

NY offense vs OKC defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

OKC offense vs NY defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: NY 13.2%, OKC 15.8%

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 43.2% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, OKC 21.8. Allowed: NY 25.9, OKC 23.4

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs CHA	L96–110WU
Feb 11	@ PHI	L93–98LU
Feb 13	vs GS	W110–107LU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	vs POR	W124–95WU
Feb 11	vs SA	W116–104WU
Feb 13	vs PHI	W123–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 1–9 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 6 meetings · NY 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	NY 100 @ OKC 111	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Mar 4, 2025-26	OKC 103 @ NY 100	NY +4.5	NY W
Jan 10, 2024-25	OKC 126 @ NY 101	NY +2.5	OKC W
Jan 3, 2024-25	NY 107 @ OKC 117	OKC -4.5	OKC W
Mar 31, 2023-24	OKC 113 @ NY 112	NY +1.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 2, Thunder 0, even 3

KnicksBetterThunder

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

Even

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYSmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

KnicksBetterThunder

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

OKC

Scoring

107.0Points per game106.5

1.05Points per possession1.05

101.0Pace (possessions)101.1

Shooting

49.5Effective FG%49.5

35.23-point %30.9

43.23-point attempt rate35.8

24.5Free throw rate21.8

Possessions

15.2Turnover rate14.5

30.3Offensive rebound rate28.5

26.2Assists per game21.7

Defense

107.7Points allowed107.0

1.07Points allowed per possession1.06

53.1Opponent effective FG%51.0

35.5Opponent 3-point %35.3

13.2Turnovers forced15.8

78.7Defensive rebound rate71.4

7.3Steals per game8.3

4.0Blocks per game6.3

NY		OKC
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.05 #23
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
35.2 #13	3-point %	30.9 #26
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
26.2 #18	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
7.3 #23	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Thunder

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Thunder

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Thunder