Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Nets
LAL	This season	BKN
5-2	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–109 · win probability LAL 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 5, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

LALBig

BKN offense vs LAL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, BKN 77.8%

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, BKN 32.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, LAL 2-1 away

LALSmall

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 45.7% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, BKN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: LAL away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	@ SA	L108–136LO
Feb 8	@ PHX	W101–73WU
Feb 10	vs LAC	W103–87WU

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	vs WSH	W121–115WO
Feb 8	@ PHI	L97–104WU
Feb 9	vs MIN	W123–107WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 6–4 BKNLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 2 meetings · LAL 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ LAL 116	LAL -18.5	BKN W
Feb 3, 2025-26	LAL 125 @ BKN 109	BKN +7.5	LAL W
Mar 10, 2024-25	LAL 108 @ BKN 111	BKN +5.5	BKN W
Jan 17, 2024-25	BKN 101 @ LAL 102	LAL -9.5	BKN W
Mar 31, 2023-24	LAL 116 @ BKN 104	BKN +6.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, Nets 1, even 1

LakersBetterNets

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

Even

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

LakersBetterNets

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

BKN4.7 #17

LAL		BKN
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.03 #29
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
38.9 #4	3-point %	35.1 #15
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
23.4 #27	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
10.4 #4	Steals per game	9.0 #14
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Nets

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Nets

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Nets