New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 4, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Wizards
NO	This season	WSH
2-4	Record	3-3
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 118–118 · win probability NO 52%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

NO 3, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, WSH 68.0%

NOBig

NO offense vs WSH defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, WSH 34.2. Allowed: NO 30.6, WSH 21.8

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, NO 0-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WSH offense vs NO defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: NO 16.3%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 32.8% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NO away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	@ CHI	L118–134LO
Feb 8	@ IND	L120–123LO
Feb 10	@ ATL	W121–99WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 6	@ BKN	L115–121LO
Feb 8	vs CHI	W124–120WU
Feb 10	vs MIA	L117–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NO 8–2 WSHNO leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NO has won the last 6 meetings · NO 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	WSH 118 @ NO 138	NO -11.5	NO W
Jan 9, 2025-26	NO 128 @ WSH 107	WSH +3.5	NO W
Jan 5, 2024-25	NO 110 @ WSH 98	WSH +5.5	NO W
Jan 3, 2024-25	WSH 120 @ NO 132	NO -7.5	NO W
Feb 14, 2023-24	WSH 126 @ NO 133	NO -14.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 3, Wizards 0, even 2

PelicansBetterWizards

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

NOSmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

NOSmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

NOBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

PelicansBetterWizards

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

NOBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

WSHSmall

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

WSH5.3 #9

NO		WSH
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.08 #19
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
31.2 #25	3-point %	29.3 #29
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
25.5 #21	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
13.7 #1	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Wizards

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Wizards

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Wizards