Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 5, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Thunder
IND	This season	OKC
2-5	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	3-3
3-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 118–107 · win probability OKC 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

IND 0, OKC 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

IND offense vs OKC defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs IND defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: IND 14.9%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 43.1% and 35.8% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, OKC 21.8. Allowed: IND 32.1, OKC 23.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: IND away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	vs NO	W123–120WO
Feb 10	vs CLE	L108–117WU
Feb 11	vs UTAH	L122–131LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 7	vs NY	W111–100WU
Feb 9	vs POR	W124–95WU
Feb 11	vs SA	W116–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

IND 8–9 OKCOKC leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · IND 9-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	IND 117 @ OKC 114	OKC -15.5	IND W
Oct 23, 2025-26	OKC 141 @ IND 135	IND +7.5	IND W
Jun 22, 2024-25	IND 91 @ OKC 103	OKC -6.5	OKC W
Jun 19, 2024-25	OKC 91 @ IND 108	IND +5.5	IND W
Jun 16, 2024-25	IND 109 @ OKC 120	OKC -8.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 2, Thunder 3, even 0

PacersBetterThunder

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

OKCSmall

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDSmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

PacersBetterThunder

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

OKCSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

OKC6.3 #7

IND		OKC
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.05 #23
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
34.1 #18	3-point %	30.9 #26
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
28.0 #7	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
6.9 #27	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Thunder