Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 29, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Rockets
ORL	This season	HOU
2-4	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 118–107 · win probability HOU 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

ORL 0, HOU 9 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, HOU 73.2%

HOUBig

ORL offense vs HOU defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, HOU 15.7%

HOUBig

HOU offense vs ORL defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 46.5% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, HOU 31.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, HOU 24.7

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: ORL away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	vs BKN	W118–98WO
Feb 2	vs NO	W112–108LU
Feb 4	@ SA	L103–112LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ DAL	L111–116LO
Feb 3	vs UTAH	W140–106WO
Feb 5	@ PHX	W119–105WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 3–7 HOUHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 5 meetings · ORL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	HOU 113 @ ORL 108	ORL +2.5	HOU W
Nov 16, 2025-26	ORL 113 @ HOU 117	HOU -7.5	ORL W
Mar 19, 2024-25	HOU 116 @ ORL 108	ORL +2.5	HOU W
Mar 10, 2024-25	ORL 84 @ HOU 97	HOU -3.5	HOU W
Apr 9, 2023-24	ORL 106 @ HOU 118	HOU +2.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, Rockets 3, even 2

MagicBetterRockets

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

HOUBig

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

HOUBig

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

MagicBetterRockets

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

HOUSmall

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

HOU5.9 #8

ORL		HOU
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.20 #1
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
35.4 #11	3-point %	39.0 #3
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
26.3 #16	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Rockets