Kia Center · at Magic
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects ORL 118–115 · win probability ORL 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NO has more of the edges
NO 3, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, ORL 68.9%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points
NOSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: NO 16.3%, ORL 13.6%
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4
ORLSmallHome court
ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
ORL offense vs NO defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 32.8% and 46.5% of their shots
Even
NO offense vs ORL defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: NO 30.6, ORL 29.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelORL -3.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.8
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 114.7 · ORL 118.1
Win probability
ORL 59%
1st half
Spread
ORL -1.7
Total
116.5
Projected score
NO 57.4 · ORL 59.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
NO 1–9 ORLORL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 9 meetings · NO 2-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ NO 108 | NO +6.5 | NO W |
| Jan 11, 2025-26 | NO 118 @ ORL 128 | ORL -7.5 | ORL W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | ORL 113 @ NO 93 | NO +2.5 | ORL W |
| Nov 8, 2024-25 | NO 88 @ ORL 115 | ORL -7.5 | ORL W |
| Apr 3, 2023-24 | ORL 117 @ NO 108 | NO -4.5 | ORL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pelicans has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 3, Magic 1, even 1
PelicansBetterMagic
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
→ORLSmall
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
←NOSmall
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
=Even
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
←NOBig
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
←NOSmall
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
PelicansBetterMagic
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
=Even
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
=Even
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
=Even
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
←NOSmall
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→ORLBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7ORL107.7 #26Points per possession
NO1.10 #15ORL1.07 #21Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2ORL101.9 #22Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9ORL53.4 #153-point %
NO31.2 #25ORL35.4 #113-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30ORL46.5 #6Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4ORL31.7 #9Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26ORL17.0 #24Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25ORL23.4 #26Assists per game
NO25.5 #21ORL26.3 #16Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24ORL116.7 #22Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16ORL1.13 #24Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21ORL53.0 #13Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5ORL34.6 #13Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10ORL13.6 #26Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6ORL68.9 #26Steals per game
NO13.7 #1ORL7.0 #26Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16ORL4.2 #23| NO | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 107.7 #26 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.07 #21 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 101.9 #22 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 53.4 #15 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 35.4 #11 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 46.5 #6 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 31.7 #9 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 17.0 #24 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 23.4 #26 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 26.3 #16 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 116.7 #22 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #24 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.0 #13 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.6 #13 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 13.6 #26 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.9 #26 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 7.0 #26 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #23 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.