Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 29, 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Timberwolves
CHA	This season	MIN
3-4	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	6-1
1-6	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 116–103 · win probability MIN 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

CHA 0, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

CHA offense vs MIN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 50.8% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, MIN 15.6%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: CHA 28.4, MIN 28.9

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, MIN 75.4%

Even

MIN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	vs LAL	W135–117WO
Feb 2	@ MIA	W115–110WU
Feb 4	vs BOS	L102–113LU

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	vs PHX	W116–104WU
Feb 2	@ POR	L104–108LU
Feb 4	@ SAC	W117–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 5-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	CHA 122 @ MIN 108	MIN +4.5	CHA W
Nov 1, 2025-26	MIN 122 @ CHA 105	CHA +4.5	MIN W
Mar 5, 2024-25	MIN 125 @ CHA 110	CHA +9.5	MIN W
Nov 4, 2024-25	CHA 93 @ MIN 114	MIN -11.5	MIN W
Jan 22, 2023-24	CHA 128 @ MIN 125	MIN -13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Timberwolves 5, even 0

HornetsBetterTimberwolves

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

MINSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

MINSmall

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

MINSmall

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

HornetsBetterTimberwolves

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

MIN4.3 #20

CHA		MIN
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	120.0 #6
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.13 #8
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
29.6 #28	3-point %	37.6 #6
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
21.6 #30	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.0 #13
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Timberwolves