Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 31, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Hornets
LAL	This season	CHA
5-2	Record	3-4
4-3	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 113–109 · win probability LAL 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 5, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, CHA 76.6%

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 50.8% of their shots

LALBig

CHA offense vs LAL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, CHA 18.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, CHA 28.4

LALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, CHA 14.5%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

LAL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	@ BOS	L89–111LU
Feb 4	@ BKN	W116–99LU
Feb 6	@ SA	L108–136LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	@ MIA	W115–110WU
Feb 4	vs BOS	L102–113LU
Feb 5	vs GS	L116–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 6–4 CHALAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 15, 2025-26	CHA 135 @ LAL 117	LAL -3.5	CHA W
Nov 10, 2025-26	LAL 121 @ CHA 111	CHA +8.5	LAL W
Feb 19, 2024-25	CHA 100 @ LAL 97	LAL -13.5	CHA W
Jan 27, 2024-25	LAL 112 @ CHA 107	CHA +4.5	LAL W
Feb 5, 2023-24	LAL 124 @ CHA 118	CHA +13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, Hornets 1, even 1

LakersBetterHornets

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

CHASmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALSmall

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

LakersBetterHornets

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

CHA5.0 #15

LAL		CHA
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.18 #2	Points per possession	0.99 #30
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
38.9 #4	3-point %	29.6 #28
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
23.4 #27	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
10.4 #4	Steals per game	7.1 #25
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Hornets

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Hornets

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Hornets