Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 31, 6:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Thunder
CHI	This season	OKC
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 123–109 · win probability OKC 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

CHI 0, OKC 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

OKC offense vs CHI defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, OKC 15.8%

OKCBig

CHI offense vs OKC defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCSmall

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 47.9% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: CHI 33.5, OKC 23.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, OKC 71.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	@ DET	L110–126LO
Feb 4	vs OKC	L113–131WO
Feb 6	vs NO	W134–118WO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	@ DEN	W96–84WU
Feb 4	@ CHI	W131–113LO
Feb 5	vs IND	L114–117LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 2–8 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 8 meetings · CHI 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ OKC 131	OKC -18.5	CHI W
Mar 3, 2025-26	OKC 116 @ CHI 108	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Mar 31, 2024-25	CHI 117 @ OKC 145	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Oct 26, 2024-25	OKC 114 @ CHI 95	CHI +9.5	OKC W
Nov 22, 2023-24	CHI 102 @ OKC 116	OKC -6.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Thunder 4, even 1

BullsBetterThunder

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

OKCSmall

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

Even

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

OKCBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

BullsBetterThunder

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

OKCSmall

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

OKCBig

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

OKCSmall

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

OKC6.3 #7

CHI		OKC
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.05 #23
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
28.1 #30	3-point %	30.9 #26
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
24.3 #25	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
8.7 #17	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Thunder