Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 2, 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Celtics
LAL	This season	BOS
5-2	Record	5-1
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–111 · win probability BOS 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

LAL 1, BOS 3 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, BOS 17.8%

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, BOS 32.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

BOS offense vs LAL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 45.7% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

LAL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 4	@ BKN	W116–99LU
Feb 6	@ SA	L108–136LO
Feb 8	@ PHX	W101–73WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 4	@ CHA	W113–102WU
Feb 5	@ ATL	L102–112LU
Feb 7	@ PHI	L100–109LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 3–7 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · LAL 4-5-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ LAL 89	LAL +1.5	BOS W
Dec 5, 2025-26	LAL 105 @ BOS 126	BOS -8.5	BOS W
Mar 8, 2024-25	LAL 101 @ BOS 111	BOS -6.5	BOS W
Jan 23, 2024-25	BOS 96 @ LAL 117	LAL +6.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2023-24	LAL 114 @ BOS 105	BOS -15.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 0, Celtics 2, even 3

LakersBetterCeltics

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

BOSSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

LakersBetterCeltics

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

BOS4.0 #25

LAL		BOS
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.15 #6
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
38.9 #4	3-point %	35.5 #10
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
23.4 #27	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
10.4 #4	Steals per game	9.2 #9
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Celtics