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NBA · Tue, Feb 2

Timberwolves @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
#2MINTimberwolves
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MINThis seasonPOR
4-3Record4-1
6-1ATS3-2
4-3O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 115–114 · win probability MIN 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIN 2, POR 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, POR 35.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, POR 27.8
MINSmall
MIN offense vs POR defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away
MINSmall
Three-pointers
MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 42.8% and 51.5% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
POR offense vs MIN defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, POR 77.3%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, POR 14.6%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, POR 14.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -1.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MIN 115 · POR 113.8
Win probability
MIN 53%
1st half
Spread
MIN -0.8
Total
114.6
Projected score
MIN 57.7 · POR 56.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Trail Blazers 1, even 1
TimberwolvesBetterTrail Blazers
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
PORBig
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
MINBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
Even
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
MINBig
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
MINSmall
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
TimberwolvesBetterTrail Blazers
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
MINSmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
Even
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIN betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MINPOR
Scoring
120.0 #6Points per game120.6 #4
1.13 #8Points per possession1.16 #5
105.4 #9Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
55.8 #6Effective FG%56.2 #4
37.6 #63-point %35.3 #12
42.8 #163-point attempt rate51.5 #1
26.1 #21Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
15.1 #12Turnover rate14.6 #9
30.0 #7Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
27.3 #11Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
108.7 #8Points allowed109.2 #10
1.04 #4Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
50.5 #5Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
31.2 #6Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
15.6 #17Turnovers forced14.8 #20
75.4 #8Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
9.0 #13Steals per game8.6 #18
4.3 #20Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.