LA Clippers at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 29, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Nets
LAC	This season	BKN
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 114–108 · win probability LAC 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

LAC 2, BKN 3 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

BKN offense vs LAC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, BKN 77.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

LAC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, BKN 32.9. Allowed: LAC 24.7, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 42.3% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: LAC away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	vs SA	L99–118LU
Feb 3	vs GS	L112–124LO
Feb 5	@ DEN	W115–114WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ ORL	L98–118LO
Feb 1	vs NY	L92–93WU
Feb 4	vs LAL	L99–116WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 7–3 BKNLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 5 meetings · LAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	BKN 89 @ LAC 126	LAC -10.5	LAC W
Jan 9, 2025-26	LAC 121 @ BKN 105	BKN +5.5	LAC W
Mar 28, 2024-25	LAC 132 @ BKN 100	BKN +12.5	LAC W
Jan 15, 2024-25	BKN 67 @ LAC 126	LAC -15.5	LAC W
Jan 21, 2023-24	BKN 114 @ LAC 125	LAC -9.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Nets 0, even 4

ClippersBetterNets

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

Even

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

LACSmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

Even

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

ClippersBetterNets

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

BKNSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

LACBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

BKN4.7 #17

LAC		BKN
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
38.6 #5	3-point %	35.1 #15
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
24.3 #26	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Nets

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Nets