Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 29, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Celtics
PHX	This season	BOS
1-3	Record	5-1
0-4	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–106 · win probability BOS 79%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

PHX 0, BOS 8 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

PHX offense vs BOS defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 45.1% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, BOS 32.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs PHX defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, PHX 0-2 away

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, BOS 17.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ MIN	L104–116LU
Feb 3	vs CLE	W126–113WO
Feb 5	vs HOU	L105–119LO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ TOR	W115–101WU
Feb 2	vs LAL	W111–89WU
Feb 4	@ CHA	W113–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 2–8 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 6 meetings · PHX 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 16, 2025-26	PHX 112 @ BOS 120	BOS -8.5	PHX W
Feb 24, 2025-26	BOS 97 @ PHX 81	PHX +5.5	BOS W
Apr 4, 2024-25	PHX 103 @ BOS 123	BOS -14.5	BOS W
Mar 26, 2024-25	BOS 132 @ PHX 102	PHX +4.5	BOS W
Mar 14, 2023-24	PHX 112 @ BOS 127	BOS -5.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 0, Celtics 3, even 2

SunsBetterCeltics

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

BOSBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SunsBetterCeltics

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

BOSSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

BOS4.0 #25

PHX		BOS
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
35.0 #16	3-point %	35.5 #10
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
27.5 #8	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Celtics