Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 3, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Suns
CLE	This season	PHX
4-2	Record	1-3
2-4	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 118–114 · win probability CLE 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 6, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

CLE offense vs PHX defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: CLE 23.2, PHX 31.1

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 43.6% and 45.1% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Recent form

Last 4: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, PHX 65.1%

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, PHX 17.1%

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

PHX offense vs CLE defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 4	@ POR	W130–111WO
Feb 6	vs ORL	W136–131LO
Feb 9	vs TOR	W114–102WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 5	vs HOU	L105–119LO
Feb 6	@ SAC	W114–103WU
Feb 8	vs LAL	L73–101LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 4–6 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2025-26	CLE 113 @ PHX 126	PHX +1.5	PHX W
Dec 31, 2025-26	PHX 113 @ CLE 129	CLE -6.5	CLE W
Mar 21, 2024-25	CLE 112 @ PHX 123	PHX +8.5	PHX W
Jan 20, 2024-25	PHX 92 @ CLE 118	CLE -7.5	CLE W
Apr 3, 2023-24	CLE 101 @ PHX 122	PHX -6.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 3, Suns 2, even 0

CavaliersBetterSuns

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

PHXSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

CavaliersBetterSuns

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLESmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

PHX5.3 #10

CLE		PHX
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.12 #12
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.0 #16
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
28.7 #4	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.0 #15
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Suns

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Suns

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Suns