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NBA · Wed, Feb 3

76ers @ Grizzlies

FedExForum · at Grizzlies
#16PHI76ers
@
#12MEMGrizzlies
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PHIThis seasonMEM
6-1Record6-0
4-3ATS6-0
2-5O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 113–112 · win probability MEM 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

PHI 2, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, MEM 75.0%
MEMBig
Three-pointers
PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 39.5% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
PHIBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, MEM 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBig
Recent form
Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
MEMSmall
PHI offense vs MEM defense
Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
PHISmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, MEM 25.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, MEM 31.4
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, PHI 3-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MEM offense vs PHI defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -0.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.1
Model edge—
Projected score
PHI 112.2 · MEM 113
Win probability
MEM 52%
1st half
Spread
MEM -0.3
Total
112.9
Projected score
PHI 56.3 · MEM 56.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1
76ersBetterGrizzlies
G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67
MEMSmall
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35
MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
PHIBig
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54
MEMSmall
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90
Even
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
76ersBetterGrizzlies
PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7
MEMSmall
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0
Even
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players
PHIBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players
MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench-19.8 · 5 players
Even
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPHI betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
76ers
Guards
T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min
Forwards
L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min
Centers
A. Bona14 minT. FallNew
Out
J. EmbiidDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PHIMEM
Scoring
108.7 #23Points per game121.2 #1
1.06 #22Points per possession1.16 #4
102.4 #19Pace (possessions)103.6 #13
Shooting
50.8 #25Effective FG%55.9 #5
34.0 #203-point %41.7 #1
39.5 #233-point attempt rate42.1 #19
28.7 #16Free throw rate25.3 #22
Possessions
12.3 #1Turnover rate15.4 #16
19.9 #30Offensive rebound rate30.6 #5
25.1 #22Assists per game27.0 #13
Defense
104.9 #2Points allowed106.0 #3
1.03 #3Points allowed per possession1.03 #2
49.8 #4Opponent effective FG%49.2 #3
32.1 #9Opponent 3-point %30.0 #3
17.0 #9Turnovers forced15.7 #15
70.8 #21Defensive rebound rate75.0 #9
9.6 #7Steals per game6.3 #28
5.0 #14Blocks per game5.2 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Hornets109–104
  • Wvs Knicks98–93
  • W@ Pacers114–109
  • Lvs Pistons93–106
  • Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.