Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Magic
CHI	This season	ORL
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 123–113 · win probability ORL 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

CHI 2, ORL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ORLBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 47.9% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, ORL 68.9%

ORLBig

ORL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, ORL 13.6%

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

CHI offense vs ORL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: CHI 33.5, ORL 29.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CHI away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ OKC	L113–131WO
Feb 2	@ DET	L110–126LO
Feb 4	vs OKC	L113–131WO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	@ HOU	L108–113LO
Jan 31	vs BKN	W118–98WO
Feb 2	vs NO	W112–108LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHI 8–10 ORLORL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHI 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	ORL 127 @ CHI 103	CHI +16.5	ORL W
Jan 2, 2025-26	ORL 114 @ CHI 121	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Dec 1, 2025-26	CHI 120 @ ORL 125	ORL -9.5	CHI W
Oct 25, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ ORL 98	ORL -6.5	CHI W
Mar 6, 2024-25	CHI 125 @ ORL 123	ORL -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Magic 2, even 2

BullsBetterMagic

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

ORLSmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

BullsBetterMagic

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

ORLSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

ORL4.2 #23

CHI		ORL
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.07 #21
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
28.1 #30	3-point %	35.4 #11
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
8.7 #17	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Magic

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Magic