Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Knicks
ATL	This season	NY
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 115–109 · win probability NY 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

ATL 2, NY 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, NY 15.2%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, NY 13.2%

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, NY 78.7%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, NY 24.5. Allowed: ATL 32.1, NY 25.9

ATLSmall

NY offense vs ATL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

ATL offense vs NY defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 44.7% and 43.2% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	@ MIL	W122–99WU
Feb 1	vs WSH	W126–96WU
Feb 3	@ IND	L124–129LO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	vs LAL	L97–110LU
Feb 1	@ BKN	W93–92LU
Feb 3	@ DET	W111–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

ATL 9–16 NYNY leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 3 meetings · ATL 11-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 30, 2025-26	NY 140 @ ATL 89	ATL +2.5	NY W
Apr 28, 2025-26	ATL 97 @ NY 126	NY -6.5	NY W
Apr 25, 2025-26	NY 114 @ ATL 98	ATL +2.5	NY W
Apr 23, 2025-26	NY 108 @ ATL 109	ATL +1.5	ATL W
Apr 20, 2025-26	ATL 107 @ NY 106	NY -5.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 0, Knicks 3, even 2

HawksBetterKnicks

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

NYSmall

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

Even

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

NYSmall

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

HawksBetterKnicks

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLSmall

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

NY4.0 #28

ATL		NY
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.05 #24
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
32.8 #22	3-point %	35.2 #13
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
30.7 #1	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
9.4 #8	Steals per game	7.3 #23
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Knicks