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NBA · Sat, Jan 30

Hawks @ Bucks

Fiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game
#14ATLHawks
@
#29MILBucks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonMIL
3-4Record1-5
3-4ATS2-4
4-3O/U5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 121–113 · win probability ATL 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ATL 3, MIL 3 · 2026-27 so far
ATLBig
ATL offense vs MIL defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, MIL 12.2%
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MILBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, MIL 74.2%
ATLSmall
MIL offense vs ATL defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
MILSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, MIL 23.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, MIL 29.7
MILSmall
Home court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, ATL 2-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 44.7% and 45.9% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -7.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.8
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 120.7 · MIL 113.1
Win probability
ATL 71%
1st half
Spread
ATL -4.4
Total
116.9
Projected score
ATL 60.7 · MIL 56.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Bucks 1, even 1
HawksBetterBucks
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
ATLBig
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
ATLBig
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
Even
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
ATLBig
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
MILSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56
HawksBetterBucks
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
ATLBig
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
ATLSmall
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
ATLBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
MILBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
MILBig
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Bucks
Guards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLMIL
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game113.0 #17
1.10 #16Points per possession1.07 #20
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)106.2 #4
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%52.0 #21
32.8 #223-point %33.9 #21
44.7 #113-point attempt rate45.9 #8
23.4 #26Free throw rate23.9 #25
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate15.8 #18
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate29.7 #8
30.7 #1Assists per game26.0 #20
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed126.2 #28
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.18 #28
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%55.4 #24
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %34.9 #14
18.3 #2Turnovers forced12.2 #30
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate74.2 #10
9.4 #8Steals per game5.7 #30
3.7 #29Blocks per game4.0 #27
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Cavaliers111–136
  • Lvs Rockets100–132
  • Wvs Pacers110–102
  • L@ 76ers116–127
  • Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.