Rocket Arena · at Cavaliers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects CLE 123–114 · win probability CLE 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 237.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges
NO 2, CLE 4 · 2026-27 so far
CLEBigCLE offense vs NO defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
NOSmallNO offense vs CLE defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6
CLESmallThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 32.8% and 43.6% of their shots
CLESmallShooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5
CLESmallHome court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, NO 0-2 away
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, CLE 28.9. Allowed: NO 30.6, CLE 23.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: NO 16.3%, CLE 14.1%
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, CLE 73.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCLE -8.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model237.0
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 114.2 · CLE 122.8
Win probability
CLE 73%
1st half
Spread
CLE -4.8
Total
118.4
Projected score
NO 56.8 · CLE 61.6
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
NO 2–8 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 5 meetings · NO 3-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025-26 | CLE 111 @ NO 106 | NO +4.5 | CLE W |
| Dec 23, 2025-26 | NO 118 @ CLE 141 | CLE -9.5 | CLE W |
| Nov 20, 2024-25 | NO 100 @ CLE 128 | CLE -14.5 | CLE W |
| Nov 6, 2024-25 | CLE 131 @ NO 122 | NO +6.5 | CLE W |
| Mar 13, 2023-24 | CLE 116 @ NO 95 | NO -6.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cavaliers has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 1, Cavaliers 2, even 2
PelicansBetterCavaliers
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
=Even
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→CLEBig
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
=Even
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
←NOBig
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
→CLEBig
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
PelicansBetterCavaliers
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
←NOSmall
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→CLEBig
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→CLEBig
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
→CLESmall
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→CLEBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7CLE121.0 #2Points per possession
NO1.10 #15CLE1.14 #7Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2CLE106.2 #3Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9CLE55.3 #73-point %
NO31.2 #25CLE37.0 #83-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30CLE43.6 #12Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4CLE28.9 #13Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26CLE14.2 #6Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25CLE26.7 #20Assists per game
NO25.5 #21CLE28.7 #4Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24CLE116.0 #20Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16CLE1.09 #14Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21CLE52.5 #12Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5CLE33.7 #11Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10CLE14.1 #25Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6CLE73.9 #11Steals per game
NO13.7 #1CLE7.8 #22Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16CLE6.3 #6| NO | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 121.0 #2 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.14 #7 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #3 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #7 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 37.0 #8 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.6 #12 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #13 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 14.2 #6 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.7 #20 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 28.7 #4 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 116.0 #20 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #14 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.5 #12 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.7 #11 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 14.1 #25 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.9 #11 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 7.8 #22 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #6 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.