Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 1, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Jazz
CLE	This season	UTAH
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 122–113 · win probability CLE 74%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 5, UTAH 1 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 43.6% and 41.7% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, UTAH 13.3%

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: CLE 23.2, UTAH 33.8

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, UTAH 77.1%

Even

UTAH offense vs CLE defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: CLE away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 3	@ PHX	L113–126LO
Feb 4	@ POR	W130–111WO
Feb 6	vs ORL	W136–131LO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 3	@ HOU	L106–140LO
Feb 6	@ DAL	L120–138LO
Feb 7	@ MIN	L111–147LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 7–3 UTAHCLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	CLE 122 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +16.5	UTAH W
Jan 12, 2025-26	UTAH 123 @ CLE 112	CLE -13.5	UTAH W
Mar 23, 2024-25	CLE 120 @ UTAH 91	UTAH +16.5	CLE W
Dec 23, 2024-25	UTAH 113 @ CLE 124	CLE -14.5	UTAH W
Apr 2, 2023-24	CLE 129 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +9.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Jazz 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterJazz

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLEBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

UTAHBig

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

CavaliersBetterJazz

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLESmall

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLESmall

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

UTAH6.5 #5

CLE		UTAH
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.05 #25
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
37.0 #8	3-point %	32.6 #23
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
28.7 #4	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
7.8 #22	Steals per game	6.2 #29
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Jazz

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Jazz

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Jazz