Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 118–112 · win probability SA 64%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
SA 2, GS 3 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 39.0% and 47.1% of their shots
SABigSA offense vs GS defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, GS 16.7%. Forced: SA 15.7%, GS 17.6%
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
Even
GS offense vs SA defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, GS 70.4%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, GS 28.8. Allowed: SA 21.7, GS 27.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -5.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.8
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 117.5 · GS 112.4
Win probability
SA 64%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.1
Total
115.1
Projected score
SA 59.1 · GS 56
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
SA 7–11 GSGS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · SA 10-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025-26 | SA 127 @ GS 113 | GS +14.5 | GS W |
| Feb 11, 2025-26 | SA 126 @ GS 113 | GS +7.5 | SA W |
| Nov 14, 2025-26 | GS 109 @ SA 108 | SA -2.5 | GS W |
| Nov 12, 2025-26 | GS 125 @ SA 120 | SA -3.5 | GS W |
| Apr 9, 2024-25 | SA 114 @ GS 111 | GS -17.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 3, Warriors 0, even 2
SpursBetterWarriors
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SASmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
=Even
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
←SABig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SASmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
SpursBetterWarriors
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
←SASmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
=Even
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
←SABig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12GS117.7 #11Points per possession
SA1.12 #10GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16GS55.3 #83-point %
SA34.9 #17GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16GS33.2 #1Assists per game
SA27.5 #9GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7GS70.4 #23Steals per game
SA9.2 #10GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1GS4.1 #24| SA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.