Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 30, 8:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Knicks
LAL	This season	NY
5-2	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 115–111 · win probability NY 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 5, NY 2 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, NY 78.7%

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

LALSmall

NY offense vs LAL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, NY 15.2%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, NY 13.2%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, NY 24.5. Allowed: LAL 30.7, NY 25.9

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 43.2% of their shots

Even

LAL offense vs NY defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	@ CHA	L117–135LO
Feb 2	@ BOS	L89–111LU
Feb 4	@ BKN	W116–99LU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 1	@ BKN	W93–92LU
Feb 3	@ DET	W111–97WU
Feb 4	vs TOR	W112–95WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 6–4 NYLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	NY 97 @ LAL 110	LAL +5.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2025-26	LAL 100 @ NY 112	NY -5.5	NY W
Mar 6, 2024-25	NY 109 @ LAL 113	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2024-25	LAL 128 @ NY 112	NY -10.5	LAL W
Feb 3, 2023-24	LAL 113 @ NY 105	NY -2.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 0, Knicks 2, even 3

LakersBetterKnicks

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

Even

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

NYSmall

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

LakersBetterKnicks

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Even

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALSmall

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALSmall

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

NY4.0 #28

LAL		NY
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.05 #24
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
38.9 #4	3-point %	35.2 #13
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
23.4 #27	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
10.4 #4	Steals per game	7.3 #23
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Knicks

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Knicks