Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mavericks and Raptors
DAL	This season	TOR
4-2	Record	3-3
4-2	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–112 · win probability TOR 64%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DAL 4, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Schedule so far

DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

DALBig

Three-pointers

DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.1% of their shots

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, TOR 73.4%

TORSmall

DAL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

DALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

DALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, TOR 27.7. Allowed: DAL 27.2, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away

Even

TOR offense vs DAL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DAL away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	vs DET	W116–114WU
Jan 31	vs HOU	W116–111WO
Feb 2	vs TOR	L92–122LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	vs CLE	L102–114LO
Jan 31	vs BOS	L101–115LU
Feb 2	@ DAL	W122–92WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DAL 7–3 TORDAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DAL 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	DAL 92 @ TOR 122	TOR -9.5	TOR W
Oct 26, 2025-26	TOR 129 @ DAL 139	DAL +1.5	DAL W
Apr 11, 2024-25	TOR 102 @ DAL 124	DAL -11.5	DAL W
Dec 7, 2024-25	DAL 125 @ TOR 118	TOR +7.5	TOR W
Feb 28, 2023-24	DAL 136 @ TOR 125	TOR +3.5	DAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 0, Raptors 3, even 2

MavericksBetterRaptors

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

TORSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

Even

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

TORSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

MavericksBetterRaptors

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

TORSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

TORSmall

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Even

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAL betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAL114.3 #14

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

DAL1.12 #11

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

DAL102.8 #18

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAL56.9 #2

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

DAL35.1 #14

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

DAL42.1 #18

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

DAL21.4 #29

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAL16.8 #23

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

DAL27.8 #13

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

DAL27.0 #12

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

DAL111.8 #14

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

DAL1.08 #13

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

DAL51.3 #9

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

DAL29.7 #2

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

DAL14.5 #24

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

DAL69.4 #25

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

DAL8.8 #16

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

DAL6.8 #2

TOR4.3 #19

DAL		TOR
Scoring
114.3 #14	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.12 #11	Points per possession	1.11 #13
102.8 #18	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
56.9 #2	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
35.1 #14	3-point %	32.0 #24
42.1 #18	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
21.4 #29	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
16.8 #23	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
27.8 #13	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
27.0 #12	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
111.8 #14	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.08 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
51.3 #9	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
29.7 #2	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
14.5 #24	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
69.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
8.8 #16	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.8 #2	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks @ Raptors

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Mavericks

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mavericks

Raptors