Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Spurs
CHA	This season	SA
3-4	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	2-4
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 115–102 · win probability SA 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

CHA 1, SA 6 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

CHA offense vs SA defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, SA 13.1%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, SA 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

SABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: CHA 28.4, SA 21.7

SASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, SA 75.8%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SASmall

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 50.8% and 39.0% of their shots

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

SA offense vs CHA defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHA away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	@ MIN	W122–108WO
Jan 31	vs LAL	W135–117WO
Feb 2	@ MIA	W115–110WU

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	@ GS	W127–113LO
Feb 1	@ GS	W127–113LO
Feb 2	@ LAC	W118–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 8–2 SACHA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	CHA 102 @ SA 115	SA -6.5	SA W
Jan 31, 2025-26	SA 106 @ CHA 111	CHA +3.5	CHA W
Mar 14, 2024-25	CHA 145 @ SA 134	SA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 7, 2024-25	SA 116 @ CHA 117	CHA +9.5	CHA W
Jan 19, 2023-24	SA 120 @ CHA 124	CHA -4.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Spurs 2, even 3

HornetsBetterSpurs

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

SABig

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

Even

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

SABig

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

HornetsBetterSpurs

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

SABig

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

SABig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

SA7.0 #1

CHA		SA
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	117.3 #12
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.12 #10
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
29.6 #28	3-point %	34.9 #17
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
21.6 #30	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.2 #10
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Spurs

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Spurs