Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
#3SASpurs
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Spurs and Warriors
SAThis seasonGS
4-2Record4-3
2-4ATS5-2
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 118–112 · win probability SA 64%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

SA 2, GS 3 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
Three-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 39.0% and 47.1% of their shots
SABig
SA offense vs GS defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
SASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, GS 16.7%. Forced: SA 15.7%, GS 17.6%
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
Even
GS offense vs SA defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, GS 70.4%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, GS 28.8. Allowed: SA 21.7, GS 27.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -5.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.8
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 117.5 · GS 112.4
Win probability
SA 64%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.1
Total
115.1
Projected score
SA 59.1 · GS 56

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 3, Warriors 0, even 2
SpursBetterWarriors
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
SASmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
Even
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
SABig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
SASmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
SpursBetterWarriors
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
SASmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
Even
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
SABig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
SABig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SAGS
Scoring
117.3 #12Points per game117.7 #11
1.12 #10Points per possession1.17 #3
104.3 #11Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
53.3 #16Effective FG%55.3 #8
34.9 #173-point %40.0 #2
39.0 #243-point attempt rate47.1 #5
24.5 #24Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
13.1 #2Turnover rate16.7 #22
27.2 #16Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
27.5 #9Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
110.2 #12Points allowed114.9 #16
1.06 #6Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
52.1 #11Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
37.3 #23Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
15.7 #14Turnovers forced17.6 #5
75.8 #7Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
9.2 #10Steals per game9.1 #11
7.0 #1Blocks per game4.1 #24

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.