Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 30, 3:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Thunder
DEN	This season	OKC
3-2	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 115–112 · win probability OKC 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

DEN 2, OKC 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: DEN 21.5, OKC 23.4

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 40.9% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

DEN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

OKC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	vs POR	W137–132LO
Feb 2	vs OKC	L84–96LU
Feb 4	vs DAL	W142–135LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 31	vs CHI	W131–113LO
Feb 2	@ DEN	W96–84WU
Feb 4	@ CHI	W131–113LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

DEN 12–16 OKCOKC leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · DEN 14-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 22, 2026-27	DEN 84 @ OKC 96	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Apr 10, 2025-26	OKC 107 @ DEN 127	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Mar 9, 2025-26	DEN 126 @ OKC 129	OKC -3.5	DEN W
Feb 27, 2025-26	DEN 121 @ OKC 127	OKC -6.5	DEN W
Feb 1, 2025-26	OKC 121 @ DEN 111	DEN +7.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nuggets 2, Thunder 2, even 1

NuggetsBetterThunder

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

OKCSmall

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

NuggetsBetterThunder

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

OKCSmall

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

OKC6.3 #7

DEN		OKC
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.05 #23
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
37.4 #7	3-point %	30.9 #26
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
26.8 #14	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
10.2 #5	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Thunder

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Thunder