Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 30, 12:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Heat
PHI	This season	MIA
6-1	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	2-4
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 116–114 · win probability MIA 55%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 4, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 39.5% and 41.7% of their shots

MIABig

MIA offense vs PHI defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, MIA 15.4%

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

MIASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, MIA 72.3%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, PHI 3-0 away

PHISmall

PHI offense vs MIA defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, MIA 27.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, MIA 23.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PHI away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 1	vs NO	L111–126LO
Feb 3	@ MEM	W139–129WO
Feb 5	vs DET	L93–106LU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 1	@ IND	W145–125WO
Feb 2	vs CHA	L110–115LU
Feb 4	vs MIL	W112–105WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

PHI 9–16 MIAMIA leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · PHI 8-17 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ MIA 119	MIA +2.5	MIA W
Feb 26, 2025-26	MIA 117 @ PHI 124	PHI -2.5	PHI W
Nov 23, 2025-26	MIA 127 @ PHI 117	PHI -1.5	MIA W
Apr 7, 2024-25	PHI 105 @ MIA 117	MIA -11.5	MIA W
Mar 29, 2024-25	MIA 118 @ PHI 95	PHI +7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Heat 0, even 2

76ersBetterHeat

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHISmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

Even

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

Even

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHISmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

76ersBetterHeat

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MIASmall

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

MIA5.0 #13

PHI		MIA
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.11 #14
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
34.0 #20	3-point %	34.1 #19
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
25.1 #22	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
9.6 #7	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Heat

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Heat

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Heat