Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Feb 1, 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Pacers
MIA	This season	IND
2-4	Record	2-5
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 120–117 · win probability MIA 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIA 2, IND 2 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs IND defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: MIA 23.2, IND 32.1

INDSmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, IND 14.8%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, IND 14.9%

Even

IND offense vs MIA defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, IND 72.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	vs CHA	L110–115LU
Feb 4	vs MIL	W112–105WU
Feb 6	@ MIN	L106–131LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 3	vs ATL	W129–124WO
Feb 5	@ OKC	W117–114WO
Feb 8	vs NO	W123–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIA 9–9 INDSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIA 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	IND 125 @ MIA 145	MIA -8.5	MIA W
Mar 29, 2025-26	MIA 118 @ IND 135	IND +8.5	IND W
Jan 10, 2025-26	MIA 99 @ IND 123	IND +6.5	IND W
Dec 27, 2025-26	IND 116 @ MIA 142	MIA -6.5	MIA W
Feb 28, 2024-25	IND 120 @ MIA 125	MIA +2.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 2, Pacers 1, even 2

HeatBetterPacers

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

INDSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIASmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

HeatBetterPacers

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

IND4.0 #26

MIA		IND
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.10 #17
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
34.1 #19	3-point %	34.1 #18
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
28.8 #3	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
8.3 #19	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Pacers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Pacers

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Pacers