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NBA · Wed, Jan 27

Pelicans @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
#22NOPelicans
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonHOU
2-4Record6-1
4-2ATS6-1
4-2O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 122–109 · win probability HOU 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

NO 0, HOU 6 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
HOU offense vs NO defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBig
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
HOUBig
NO offense vs HOU defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
HOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, HOU 73.2%
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: NO 16.3%, HOU 15.7%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: NO 30.6, HOU 24.7
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -12.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.9
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 109.3 · HOU 121.6
Win probability
HOU 81%
1st half
Spread
HOU -6.8
Total
115.6
Projected score
NO 54.4 · HOU 61.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 0, Rockets 3, even 2
PelicansBetterRockets
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45
HOUSmall
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
HOUBig
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
Even
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
Even
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
HOUSmall
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
PelicansBetterRockets
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
HOUSmall
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
HOUBig
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NOHOU
Scoring
119.7 #7Points per game120.7 #3
1.10 #15Points per possession1.20 #1
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
55.1 #9Effective FG%56.6 #3
31.2 #253-point %39.0 #3
32.8 #303-point attempt rate38.1 #26
35.3 #4Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
17.4 #26Turnover rate15.1 #13
24.3 #25Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
25.5 #21Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
117.8 #24Points allowed108.3 #7
1.09 #16Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
54.2 #21Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
30.5 #5Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
16.3 #10Turnovers forced15.7 #16
76.4 #6Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
13.7 #1Steals per game9.7 #6
4.8 #16Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.