Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 28, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Pelicans
PHI	This season	NO
6-1	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	4-2
2-5	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 115–114 · win probability PHI 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

PHI 1, NO 4 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, NO 17.4%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, NO 16.3%

NOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, NO 76.4%

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, NO 35.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, NO 30.6

Even

NO offense vs PHI defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

PHI offense vs NO defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 39.5% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	@ MIA	L109–119LU
Feb 1	vs NO	L111–126LO
Feb 3	@ MEM	W139–129WO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	@ CLE	L106–111LU
Feb 1	@ PHI	W126–111WO
Feb 2	@ ORL	L108–112WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 4–6 NONO leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	PHI 111 @ NO 126	NO +3.5	NO W
Jan 31, 2025-26	NO 114 @ PHI 124	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Mar 24, 2024-25	PHI 99 @ NO 112	NO -3.5	NO W
Jan 10, 2024-25	NO 123 @ PHI 115	PHI -6.5	NO W
Mar 8, 2023-24	NO 103 @ PHI 95	PHI +8.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 4, Pelicans 1, even 0

76ersBetterPelicans

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHISmall

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

NOSmall

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

76ersBetterPelicans

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

Even

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

NOSmall

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

NOBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

NO4.8 #16

PHI		NO
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.10 #15
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
34.0 #20	3-point %	31.2 #25
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
25.1 #22	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
9.6 #7	Steals per game	13.7 #1
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Pelicans

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Pelicans