Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Timberwolves
DEN	This season	MIN
3-2	Record	4-3
2-3	ATS	6-1
3-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 121–112 · win probability MIN 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

DEN 1, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs DEN defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, MIN 26.1. Allowed: DEN 21.5, MIN 28.9

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, MIN 75.4%

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.8% of their shots

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, MIN 15.6%

Even

DEN offense vs MIN defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 30	@ OKC	L84–96LU
Jan 31	vs POR	W137–132LO
Feb 2	vs OKC	L84–96LU

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	vs CHA	L108–122LO
Jan 31	vs PHX	W116–104WU
Feb 2	@ POR	L104–108LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 38 since 2021-22

DEN 17–21 MINMIN leads · 38 games since 2021-22 · DEN 15-22 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 30, 2025-26	DEN 98 @ MIN 110	—	—
Apr 27, 2025-26	MIN 113 @ DEN 125	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Apr 25, 2025-26	DEN 96 @ MIN 112	MIN +1.5	MIN W
Apr 23, 2025-26	DEN 96 @ MIN 113	MIN -1.5	MIN W
Apr 20, 2025-26	MIN 119 @ DEN 114	DEN -7.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 0, Timberwolves 2, even 3

NuggetsBetterTimberwolves

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

MINSmall

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

NuggetsBetterTimberwolves

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

MIN4.3 #20

DEN		MIN
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.13 #8
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
37.4 #7	3-point %	37.6 #6
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Timberwolves