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NBA · Wed, Jan 27

Warriors @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
#13GSWarriors
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonPOR
4-3Record4-1
5-2ATS3-2
4-3O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–113 · win probability POR 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 231.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

GS 1, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
GSSmall
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, POR 35.9. Allowed: GS 27.3, POR 27.8
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, GS 2-2 away
PORSmall
POR offense vs GS defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, POR 77.3%
Even
GS offense vs POR defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 47.1% and 51.5% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, POR 14.6%. Forced: GS 17.6%, POR 14.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -6.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model231.0
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 112.5 · POR 118.5
Win probability
POR 67%
1st half
Spread
POR -3.2
Total
115.6
Projected score
GS 56.2 · POR 59.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Warriors 2, Trail Blazers 2, even 1
WarriorsBetterTrail Blazers
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
PORSmall
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSSmall
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
PORBig
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
GSSmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
Even
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
WarriorsBetterTrail Blazers
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Even
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
Even
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
PORBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSPOR
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game120.6 #4
1.17 #3Points per possession1.16 #5
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%56.2 #4
40.0 #23-point %35.3 #12
47.1 #53-point attempt rate51.5 #1
28.8 #15Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate14.6 #9
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
27.4 #10Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed109.2 #10
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
17.6 #5Turnovers forced14.8 #20
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
9.1 #11Steals per game8.6 #18
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.