1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Thu, Jan 28
  4. GS @ UTAH
NBA · Thu, Jan 28

Warriors @ Jazz

Delta Center · at Jazz · Conference game
#13GSWarriors
@
#26UTAHJazz
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonUTAH
4-3Record1-5
5-2ATS1-5
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 120–115 · win probability GS 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 235.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 7, UTAH 1 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
GS offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 47.1% and 41.7% of their shots
GSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: GS 17.6%, UTAH 13.3%
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: GS 27.3, UTAH 33.8
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmall
UTAH offense vs GS defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9
UTAHSmall
Home court
UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, GS 2-2 away
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, UTAH 77.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -5.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model235.0
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 120.4 · UTAH 114.6
Win probability
GS 66%
1st half
Spread
GS -3.4
Total
117.5
Projected score
GS 60.4 · UTAH 57
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Jazz 1, even 1
WarriorsBetterJazz
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSBig
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSBig
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
Even
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
UTAHSmall
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSBig
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36
WarriorsBetterJazz
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
GSSmall
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
UTAHSmall
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Jazz
Guards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSUTAH
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game108.7 #24
1.17 #3Points per possession1.05 #25
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)104.0 #12
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%51.0 #24
40.0 #23-point %32.6 #23
47.1 #53-point attempt rate41.7 #21
28.8 #15Free throw rate31.6 #10
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate17.0 #25
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate25.7 #22
27.4 #10Assists per game26.2 #19
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed118.8 #25
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.14 #25
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%53.9 #18
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %37.6 #25
17.6 #5Turnovers forced13.3 #28
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate77.1 #4
9.1 #11Steals per game6.2 #29
4.1 #24Blocks per game6.5 #5
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132
  • Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.