Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#21PHXSuns

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Nets
PHX	This season	BKN
1-3	Record	1-5
0-4	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 115–110 · win probability PHX 62%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

PHX 2, BKN 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, BKN 15.9%

PHXSmall

BKN offense vs PHX defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, BKN 77.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, BKN 32.9. Allowed: PHX 31.1, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 45.1% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

PHX offense vs BKN defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: PHX away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	@ BOS	L112–120WO
Jan 31	@ MIN	L104–116LU
Feb 3	vs CLE	W126–113WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	vs LAC	L89–126LO
Jan 31	@ ORL	L98–118LO
Feb 1	vs NY	L92–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 8–2 BKNPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 3 meetings · PHX 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	BKN 102 @ PHX 106	PHX -7.5	BKN W
Jan 19, 2025-26	PHX 126 @ BKN 117	BKN +9.5	BKN W
Jan 22, 2024-25	PHX 108 @ BKN 84	BKN +12.5	PHX W
Nov 27, 2024-25	BKN 127 @ PHX 117	PHX -9.5	BKN W
Jan 31, 2023-24	PHX 136 @ BKN 120	BKN +3.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nets has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Nets 2, even 2

SunsBetterNets

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

BKNSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

SunsBetterNets

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

PHXSmall

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

BKN4.7 #17

PHX		BKN
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
35.0 #16	3-point %	35.1 #15
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
27.5 #8	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Nets

Nets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Nets