LA Clippers at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Celtics
LAC	This season	BOS
1-5	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 115–105 · win probability BOS 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

LAC 0, BOS 5 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

LAC offense vs BOS defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, BOS 17.8%

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 42.3% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, BOS 32.3. Allowed: LAC 24.7, BOS 31.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

BOS offense vs LAC defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	@ BKN	W126–89WO
Feb 2	vs SA	L99–118LU
Feb 3	vs GS	L112–124LO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 29	vs PHX	W120–112LO
Jan 31	@ TOR	W115–101WU
Feb 2	vs LAL	W111–89WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 4–6 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 4 meetings · LAC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 3, 2025-26	BOS 146 @ LAC 115	LAC -1.5	BOS W
Nov 16, 2025-26	LAC 118 @ BOS 121	BOS -5.5	LAC W
Jan 22, 2024-25	BOS 117 @ LAC 113	LAC +11.5	LAC W
Nov 25, 2024-25	LAC 94 @ BOS 126	BOS -10.5	BOS W
Jan 27, 2023-24	LAC 115 @ BOS 96	BOS -6.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Celtics 4, even 0

ClippersBetterCeltics

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

BOSBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

ClippersBetterCeltics

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

BOS4.0 #25

LAC		BOS
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
38.6 #5	3-point %	35.5 #10
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
24.3 #26	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Celtics