Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 27, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and 76ers
SAC	This season	PHI
0-6	Record	6-1
1-5	ATS	4-3
5-1	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 121–107 · win probability PHI 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

SAC 1, PHI 7 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

SAC offense vs PHI defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, PHI 17.0%

PHIBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.0% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

PHI offense vs SAC defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, PHI 70.8%

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, PHI 28.7. Allowed: SAC 31.2, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 28	@ WSH	L112–116LO
Jan 31	@ DET	L116–139LO
Feb 4	vs MIN	L103–117LU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 28	@ NO	L111–126LO
Jan 30	@ MIA	L109–119LU
Feb 1	vs NO	L111–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 2–8 PHIPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings · SAC 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	PHI 139 @ SAC 118	SAC +2.5	PHI W
Jan 29, 2025-26	SAC 111 @ PHI 113	PHI -9.5	SAC W
Jan 29, 2024-25	SAC 104 @ PHI 117	PHI +8.5	PHI W
Jan 1, 2024-25	PHI 107 @ SAC 113	SAC -6.5	PHI W
Mar 25, 2023-24	PHI 96 @ SAC 108	SAC -7.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, 76ers 4, even 1

KingsBetter76ers

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

PHIBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

KingsBetter76ers

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

PHISmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

PHI5.0 #14

SAC		PHI
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.06 #22
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
30.4 #27	3-point %	34.0 #20
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
24.5 #23	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.6 #7
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

76ers