Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Grizzlies
MIN	This season	MEM
4-3	Record	6-0
6-1	ATS	6-0
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 119–112 · win probability MIN 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIN 2, MEM 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

MIN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, MIN 2-2 away

MEMSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 42.8% and 42.1% of their shots

MINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, MEM 25.3. Allowed: MIN 28.9, MEM 31.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

Even

MEM offense vs MIN defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, MEM 15.7%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, MEM 75.0%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: MIN away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	vs DEN	W110–98
Jan 29	vs CHA	L108–122LO
Jan 31	vs PHX	W116–104WU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 28	@ OKC	L116–117WO
Jan 30	@ UTAH	W110–105WU
Feb 1	@ MIL	L115–131LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

MIN 13–12 MEMMIN leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · MIN 13-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2025-26	MEM 110 @ MIN 117	MIN -14.5	MEM W
Feb 2, 2025-26	MIN 128 @ MEM 137	MEM +7.5	MEM W
Jan 31, 2025-26	MIN 131 @ MEM 114	MEM +11.5	MIN W
Dec 17, 2025-26	MEM 116 @ MIN 110	MIN -6.5	MEM W
Apr 10, 2024-25	MIN 141 @ MEM 125	MEM +2.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Timberwolves 1, Grizzlies 1, even 3

TimberwolvesBetterGrizzlies

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

Even

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

TimberwolvesBetterGrizzlies

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINSmall

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

MEM5.2 #11

MIN		MEM
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.16 #4
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
37.6 #6	3-point %	41.7 #1
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
27.3 #11	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
9.0 #13	Steals per game	6.3 #28
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Grizzlies

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Grizzlies

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Grizzlies