Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Pelicans
CLE	This season	NO
4-2	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 121–116 · win probability CLE 62%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CLE 3, NO 3 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs NO defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

NO offense vs CLE defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 43.6% and 32.8% of their shots

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, NO 35.3. Allowed: CLE 23.2, NO 30.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, NO 17.4%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, NO 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, NO 76.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	vs DET	W125–94WO
Jan 29	@ TOR	W114–102WO
Jan 30	vs NO	W111–106WU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ HOU	L102–134LO
Jan 28	vs PHI	W126–111WO
Jan 30	@ CLE	L106–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 8–2 NOCLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 5 meetings · CLE 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	CLE 111 @ NO 106	NO +4.5	CLE W
Dec 23, 2025-26	NO 118 @ CLE 141	CLE -9.5	CLE W
Nov 20, 2024-25	NO 100 @ CLE 128	CLE -14.5	CLE W
Nov 6, 2024-25	CLE 131 @ NO 122	NO +6.5	CLE W
Mar 13, 2023-24	CLE 116 @ NO 95	NO -6.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Pelicans 1, even 2

CavaliersBetterPelicans

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

NOBig

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

CavaliersBetterPelicans

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

NOSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLESmall

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

NO4.8 #16

CLE		NO
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.10 #15
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
37.0 #8	3-point %	31.2 #25
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
28.7 #4	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
7.8 #22	Steals per game	13.7 #1
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Pelicans

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Pelicans

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Pelicans