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NBA · Sat, Jan 23

Cavaliers @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
#11CLECavaliers
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CLEThis seasonDAL
4-2Record4-2
2-4ATS4-2
3-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 117–116 · win probability CLE 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

CLE 3, DAL 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
CLEBig
CLE offense vs DAL defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
CLEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: CLE 23.2, DAL 27.2
CLESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, DAL 14.5%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Recent form
Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away
DALSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALSmall
DAL offense vs CLE defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, DAL 69.4%
Even
Three-pointers
CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 43.6% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCLE -1.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.3
Model edge—
Projected score
CLE 117.2 · DAL 116.1
Win probability
CLE 53%
1st half
Spread
CLE -0.8
Total
116.7
Projected score
CLE 58.7 · DAL 57.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
CavaliersBetterMavericks
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53
CLEBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86
Even
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90
CLEBig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30
DALBig
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100
CLEBig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
CavaliersBetterMavericks
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
CLEBig
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
Even
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
CLEBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
CLESmall
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
CLESmall
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cavaliers
Guards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLEDAL
Scoring
121.0 #2Points per game114.3 #14
1.14 #7Points per possession1.12 #11
106.2 #3Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
55.3 #7Effective FG%56.9 #2
37.0 #83-point %35.1 #14
43.6 #123-point attempt rate42.1 #18
28.9 #13Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
14.2 #6Turnover rate16.8 #23
26.7 #20Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
28.7 #4Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
116.0 #20Points allowed111.8 #14
1.09 #14Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
52.5 #12Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
33.7 #11Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
14.1 #25Turnovers forced14.5 #24
73.9 #11Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
7.8 #22Steals per game8.8 #16
6.3 #6Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Bucks136–111
  • L@ Hawks111–114
  • Wvs Wizards121–111
  • Wvs Timberwolves127–125
  • Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.