Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 23, 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Heat
ATL	This season	MIA
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 119–119 · win probability MIA 52%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ATL 3, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs ATL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, MIA 27.3. Allowed: ATL 32.1, MIA 23.2

ATLBig

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 44.7% and 41.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, MIA 15.4%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, MIA 72.3%

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: ATL away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	@ DET	W130–129WO
Jan 28	@ NY	L89–140LO
Jan 30	@ MIL	W122–99WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	@ BKN	W126–110WO
Jan 28	@ MIL	W112–105WU
Jan 30	vs PHI	W119–109WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

ATL 8–20 MIAMIA leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings · ATL 10-18 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	MIA 129 @ ATL 117	ATL -2.5	MIA W
Apr 12, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ MIA 143	MIA -10.5	MIA W
Feb 20, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ ATL 97	ATL +3.5	MIA W
Feb 3, 2025-26	ATL 127 @ MIA 115	MIA -1.5	ATL W
Dec 26, 2025-26	MIA 126 @ ATL 111	ATL -2.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Heat 2, even 0

HawksBetterHeat

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLSmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

MIASmall

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLSmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

HawksBetterHeat

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

MIASmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

MIA5.0 #13

ATL		MIA
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.11 #14
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
32.8 #22	3-point %	34.1 #19
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
30.7 #1	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
9.4 #8	Steals per game	8.3 #19
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Heat

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Heat

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Heat