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NBA · Tue, Jan 26

Hawks @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
#14ATLHawks
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonDET
3-4Record5-1
3-4ATS5-1
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–109 · win probability DET 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

ATL 1, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, DET 28.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, DET 28.1
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETBig
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
ATLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, DET 15.6%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, DET 17.1%
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
ATL offense vs DET defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 44.7% and 43.3% of their shots
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, ATL 2-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, DET 72.8%
Even
DET offense vs ATL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -6.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.7
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 108.9 · DET 115.8
Win probability
DET 69%
1st half
Spread
DET -3.7
Total
112.7
Projected score
ATL 54.5 · DET 58.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 1, Pistons 2, even 2
HawksBetterPistons
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
ATLSmall
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
DETSmall
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
Even
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
HawksBetterPistons
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
DETSmall
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
Even
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
ATLBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLDET
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game109.8 #21
1.10 #16Points per possession1.09 #18
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%53.1 #17
32.8 #223-point %36.3 #9
44.7 #113-point attempt rate43.3 #13
23.4 #26Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate15.6 #17
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
30.7 #1Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed101.8 #1
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
18.3 #2Turnovers forced17.1 #6
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
9.4 #8Steals per game9.0 #12
3.7 #29Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.